We were promised jetpacks, flying cars, and human settlements on Mars. Instead, we were given TikTok, the metaverse, and an endless supply of cryptocurrency scams. The future of technology is notoriously difficult to predict and often moves in incomprehensible ways. Despite the loud objections of our analytical minds, the allure of attempting to look into the future is too strong. We inevitably succumb to our urge and confidently make (mostly inaccurate) predictions. Now that we’ve taken yet another trip around the sun, I’d like to indulge in this arbitrary and useless ritual. Below are three trends that I predict will take center stage in 2023.
A Deflating Bubble
This year will bring an end to profitless tech firms with fantastical valuations due to pandemic-fueled growth. The stock values of money-losing tech companies dropped sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, down 57% and significantly underperforming market indices.1 Silicon Valley startups are coming to the realization that a good idea isn’t enough to create value. This trend will continue throughout 2023 as investors flock to more conservative companies with a track record of profitability. As a result, we will witness the beginning of a mass extinction event of technology startups.
A Year of Doing More with Less
Unclear geopolitical and economic indicators will cause leaders in the technology space to become more cautious. 2023 will be a sober year of targeted, strategic technological investment. Successful companies will find areas where innovations overlap and technologies work harmoniously to create new possibilities that provide multiplicative value. While unexciting, investing in foundational IT architecture will enable companies to take advantage of new and disruptive technologies quickly.
A Continued Exodus to the Cloud
Over the past few years, “the cloud” has gone from a trendy buzzword to an inescapable necessity for businesses. Even traditionally conservative and security-centric industries, such as banking, have completely shifted from a vertically integrated data supply chain powered by legacy mainframe architecture to an absolute embrace of cloud technologies. As a developer of software running on cloud services, I’ve had a front-row seat to this trend. While a cloud-based data strategy isn’t without some drawbacks, it is remarkably effective in controlling costs, scaling rapidly, and offering unparalleled resiliency.
References
1 Vlastelica, R. (2022, October 10). Tech earnings matter more than ever as the bubble deflates. Bloomberg.com. Retrieved January 13, 2023, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/earnings-matter-more-than-ever-as-bubble-deflates-tech-watch